Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 79.5% on 26 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2025 to 2 Oct 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 2 Oct 2025 and the lowest 69.5% on 27 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 84% on 28 Sep 2025. $46.95K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 26 Sep 2025 – 2 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2025 | 79.5% |
| 2 Oct 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tindache | No | 1.64K |
| happypanda1 | No | 1.04K |
| ArkanSly | No | 903.93 |
| DeezBags | No | 848.65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military or law enforcement personnel physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers, by September 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAShktBWg_g
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla-by
| PierreBourne | No | 702.27 |
| CrewKings | No | 662.52 |
| tsihkodiives | No | 623.35 |
| sss4 | No | 559 |
| Forked-Galley | No | 537.61 |
| mychanaria | No | 209.13 |
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