Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$90.7K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.8%. Yes opened at 49% on 5 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 50.8% on 23 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 8 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 9% on 6 Sep 2025. $90.69K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 5 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Sep 2025	49.0%
1 Oct 2025	7.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	18.82K
dontshowmyname	Yes	5.03K
Rejj	Yes	1.9K
Allinnothing	Yes	252

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege This market will resolve according to the date Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers. This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.