Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 51% on 5 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2025 to 19 Sep 2025, the highest close was 51% on 5 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 24.5% on 6 Sep 2025. $15.96K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 20, 8:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 5 Sep 2025 – 19 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2025 | 51.0% |
| 19 Sep 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 18.82K |
| Ziigmund | Yes | 2.35K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 1.88K |
| shine | Yes | 396.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege This market will resolve according to the date Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers. This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAShktBWg_g
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla
| linkengongyuan | Yes | 339.6 |
| cossack | Yes | 333.33 |
| untaken | Yes | 305.1 |
| Limited-Handle | Yes | 144.31 |
| moon-k58-lad | Yes | 93.94 |
| dontshowmyname | Yes | 58 |
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