Analytics
Resolved No on 14 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 7 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 7 May 2025 to 14 May 2025, the highest close was 7.5% on 7 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 May 2025. $426.85K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 16, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 7 May 2025 – 14 May 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 May 2025 | 7.5% |
| 14 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| basedmogger | Yes | 10.97K |
| HighRiskHobo | Yes | 9.83K |
| K33N | Yes | 796.1 |
| Trumpandump | Yes | 333.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-next-tuesday
| Emilio710 | Yes | 253.21 |
| Jacobluke | Yes | 158.33 |
| Clipfish99 | Yes | 153.39 |
| Hafgerav | Yes | 128.21 |
| fatninja420 | Yes | 125 |
| BigTark69 | Yes | 125 |
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