Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 19 Sep 2024. Before it settled, the high was 73% on 1 Oct 2024 and the low 0.1% on 8 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 67 points up, to 73% on 1 Oct 2024. $13.82M traded over the market's life.
185 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 9, 12:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 20 points · 19 Sep 2024 – 8 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2024 | 14.5% |
| 8 Oct 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Niniti2 | Yes | 686.62K |
| JPow | Yes | 218.34K |
| Sentimental-Trade | Yes | 171.55K |
| AXX | Yes | 67.05K |
| RizzMuffin | Yes | 59.19K |
| sentokai | Yes | 38.82K |
| radetrade | Yes | 29.64K |
| puremichigan23 | Yes | 25.03K |
| Danklordkush | Yes | 17.21K |
| Letsgetthatdough | Yes | 16.35K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between September 17, 2024 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september
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