Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 10 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2024 to 21 Jan 2024, the highest close was 5.4% on 12 Jan 2024 and the lowest 0.9% on 21 Jan 2024. $61.82K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 2:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 10 Jan 2024 – 21 Jan 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2024 | 4.5% |
| 21 Jan 2024 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Garlicstorm | Yes | 2.36K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon by January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-by-january-20
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