Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 3 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 3 Aug 2024 to 10 Aug 2024, the highest close was 16.5% on 3 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 10 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 9% on 4 Aug 2024. $81.93K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 11, 5:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 3 Aug 2024 – 10 Aug 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2024 | 16.5% |
| 10 Aug 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between August 1, 2024 and August 9, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-by-friday-aug-9
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Astig | Yes | 0.2 |
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| MewKitty | Yes | 0.17 |
| Gabiel47 | Yes | 0.17 |
| omgomgomg3993 | Yes | 0.11 |
| doggystyle | Yes | 0.1 |
