Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 15% on 30 May 2024. Before it settled, across the 95 daily closes on record from 30 May 2024 to 1 Sep 2024, the highest close was 64.5% on 30 Jun 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 45.5% on 28 Jul 2024. $1.35M traded over the market's life.
128 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 1:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 95 points, 30 May 2024 – 1 Sep 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 May 2024 | 15.0% |
| 1 Sep 2024 | 0.1% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between May 29, 2024 and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-september
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| Yes |
| 3.83K |
| Upset-Ethnicity | Yes | 1.2K |
| 0x95F9A773606 | Yes | 931.39 |
| MJThrow | Yes | 625.01 |
| Captain Cilly | Yes | 510.74 |
| gigiko | Yes | 400 |
| petatdes | Yes | 380 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
