Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 14% on 20 Mar 2024. Before it settled, the high was 18.5% on 8 Apr 2024 and the low 0.3% on 1 May 2024. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 18.5% on 8 Apr 2024. $186.82K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 43 points · 20 Mar 2024 – 1 May 2024 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2024 | 14.0% |
| 1 May 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xaf | Yes | 3.42K |
| binkybill248 | Yes | 1.03K |
| leonmodena | Yes | 416.67 |
| HoldKeep | Yes | 181.82 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-may
| PurposedCircle | Yes | 5 |
| mert | No | 1.04 |
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