Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 23 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 23 Feb 2024 to 1 Apr 2024, the highest close was 11% on 6 Mar 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2024. $139.05K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 23 Feb 2024 – 1 Apr 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2024 | 9.5% |
| 1 Apr 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SchizoJew | Yes | 2.4K |
| LiverisKing | No | 0.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon by March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-april
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