Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 8% on 20 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 20 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 8% on 20 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Jul 2025. $105.8K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 20 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jun 2025 | 8.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Monsieurmunish | Yes | 3.67K |
| Kingold60 | Yes | 1.05K |
| Lukasnru | Yes | 441.23 |
| Cayunit | Yes | 396.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel officially declares war on Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying declaration must be explicit and formal, issued through official Israeli government channels, and must clearly state that Israel is at war with Iran. General statements about conflict, military operations, or threats do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war. Only statements made by the Israeli government qualify. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-declare-war-on-iran-before-july-989
New to prediction markets?
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 384.96 |
| gettingdo | Yes | 277.78 |
| yatslayer | Yes | 276.63 |
| Fastmoney | Yes | 276 |
| pimpek15 | Yes | 247.42 |
| Vellanoweth | Yes | 210.33 |
