Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Feb 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 52%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 26 Jan 2024. Before it settled, the high was 48% on 16 Feb 2024 and the low 1.6% on 14 Feb 2024. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 48% on 16 Feb 2024. $59.34K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 17, 3:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 22 points · 26 Jan 2024 – 16 Feb 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2024 | 20.5% |
| 16 Feb 2024 | 48.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 11235813 | Yes | 8.78K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 25 and February 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a Israeli missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-attack-iran-by-february-15
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