Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 88%. Yes opened at 29% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 29% on 25 Mar 2026 and the low 12% on 2 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 19% on 27 Mar 2026. $13.83K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 9, 8:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 6 points · 25 Mar 2026 – 2 Apr 2026 · axis zoomed to 5%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 29.0% |
| 2 Apr 2026 | 12.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ludwig14 | Yes | 234.62 |
| Lifeisfun | Yes | 161.29 |
| Inexperienced-Treaty | Yes | 126.78 |
| TooYoungToWin | Yes | 81.63 |
| daroghi | Yes | 60.01 |
| Rapid Kestrel A206 | Yes | 50 |
| 0xMIX | Yes | 30 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 19.93 |
| Both-Talk | Yes | 15 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-on-346
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