Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 8% on 4 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 15% on 6 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 6.5% on 7 Oct 2024. $105.67K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 28, 6:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 4 Oct 2024 – 1 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2024 | 8.0% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Brisk-Foray | Yes | 4.01K |
| InkSharePotato | Yes | 972.71 |
| BossMan | Yes | 757.86 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between October 2 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-strike-gulf-oil-facilities-in-october
| Yes |
| 100 |
| tp001 | Yes | 88.67 |
| Shashdi | Yes | 50 |
| Spydin | Yes | 10 |
| fonzy | No | 1.62 |
| larchyk | No | 1.08 |
| fasthumarti1979 | No | 0.51 |
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