Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 14 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 30.5% on 18 Jun 2025 and the low 0.3% on 30 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 30.5% on 18 Jun 2025. $227.88K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 14 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2025 | 17.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 9.05K |
| anony11 | Yes | 1.06K |
| vaso28 | Yes | 626.69 |
| 0x01BTC01 | Yes | 416.67 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between June 12 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-strike-gulf-oil-facilities-before-july
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 391 |
| Prinzpoupou | Yes | 125 |
| Marcus177 | Yes | 114.14 |
| Andreeadrg | Yes | 111.11 |
| Samwiri | Yes | 100 |
| Konkon1870 | Yes | 84.99 |
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