Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 26% on 16 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 26% on 16 Jun 2025 and the low 0.3% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 8.5% on 17 Jun 2025. $167.39K traded over the market's life.
75 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 16 points · 16 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2025 | 26.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| StillLife | Yes | 4.32K |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 4.11K |
| Thomas.Edison | Yes | 2.79K |
| vaso28 | Yes | 2.11K |
| Phenium | Yes | 820 |
| anony11 | Yes | 710.04 |
| Weeeeeee | Yes | 706.93 |
| Vellanoweth | Yes | 568.51 |
| VernonBros | Yes | 526.14 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Iran officially declares war on Israel by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying declaration must be explicit and formal, made by the Iranian government through official channels, and must clearly state that Iran is at war. General threats, escalatory rhetoric, or announcements of military action do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war. Only statements issued by the Iranian government qualify. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-declare-war-on-israel-before-july
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