Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 23% on 4 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2026 to 6 Mar 2026, the highest close was 23% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 0.1% on 6 Mar 2026.
54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 7, 6:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 4 Mar 2026 – 6 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2026 | 23.0% |
| 6 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 106.72K |
| Warzone | Yes | 23.87K |
| rated | Yes | 9.24K |
| Bumpy-Neon | Yes | 5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the date (Iran Standard Time) on which Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient to resolve this market to the date of that announcement regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no qualifying announcement has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No New Leader by March 31”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-announces-new-supreme-leader-on
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 3.22K |
| 881112 | Yes | 2.12K |
| LukeDelta | Yes | 2K |
| Rapid Pulse C73C | Yes | 1.4K |
| Scornful-Conductor | Yes | 880.32 |
| Amber Horizon 6EB5 | Yes | 779.37 |
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