Will India’s Unemployment Rate increase in February?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 16, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 16, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 16 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 29.5%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 26 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 26 Feb 2026 to 14 Mar 2026, the highest close was 70.5% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 15% on 11 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 56% on 12 Mar 2026.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 17, 2:10 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 26 Feb 2026 – 14 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
26 Feb 2026	47.5%
14 Mar 2026	70.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.86K
0xRocket666	Yes	200
Yawning-Dictator	Yes	182.88
wendypeekaboo	Yes	100

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about the monthly variation in India’s overall unemployment rate (all-India/overall, persons aged 15 and above) as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) in the monthly Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS). This market will resolve to “Up” if the Indian overall unemployment rate is higher in February than in the last published month. This market will resolve to “No Change” if the Indian unemployment rate is the same in February as it was in the last published month. This market will resolve to “Down” if the Indian Unemployment Rate is lower in February than in the last published month. The resolution sources for this market are the MoSPI Monthly Bulletins of the Periodic Labor Force Survey for the relevant months, released every month at https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases The next data release is scheduled for March 16, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data made after this release will not count toward this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1766406009096-ARCupdatedtill20November2025.pdf If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve to “No Change”.