Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 3, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$218.0K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 3, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 3 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 77.5%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 20 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2025 to 3 Mar 2025, the highest close was 49.5% on 20 Feb 2025 and the lowest 17% on 24 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 26.5% on 21 Feb 2025. $218.02K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 4, 4:18 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 20 Feb 2025 – 3 Mar 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
20 Feb 2025	49.5%
3 Mar 2025	22.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	4.29K
101010Tintin	Yes	90
xenocereal	Yes	49.85
fireflies2	Yes	48.76

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2025 the 97th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 2, 2025. This market will resolve according to the film which wins the Academy Award for Best Documentary Short Film. If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g. https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.