Analytics
Yes is at 86.5%, up 61 points from 26% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
Across the 41 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 87.5% on 30 Sep 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 15 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 86%; a month before, 44.5%. Its largest one-day move was 50 points up, to 63.5% on 16 Sep 2026.
Iceland is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “UEFA Nations League 2026-27: Group C4 Winner”, ahead of Estonia at 4.6%.
$9.07K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $635.77, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 208 trades, $1.92K bought Yes and $423.81 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Cyberflems with 500 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 940. Ten wallets hold 96% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Dec 2026, 36 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 26.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 86.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 939.91 |
| Cyberflems | Yes | 500 |
| kurtzouma | Yes | 400 |
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group C4 at the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is cancelled, postponed after December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/uefa-nations-league-2026-27-group-c4-winner
| Bulky-Helo-Athlete |
| Yes |
| 223.78 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 112.06 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 84.57 |
| aliaspopeye | No | 78.84 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 40 |
| Solar Signal F3B1 | No | 30 |
| romanew-2s | No | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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