Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 16% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 4 May 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99% on 3 May 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 25 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 90 points up, to 93.5% on 30 Apr 2026. $18.47K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 5, 5:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 4 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 16.0% |
| 4 May 2026 | 98.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.68K |
| Hungry-Timber | No | 55.63 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/precipitation-in-hong-kong-in-april
| No |
| 25 |
| 656yertr | No | 25 |
| Capital-Aardvark | No | 10 |
| brouhaha88 | No | 9 |
| Bright Pioneer 3F41 | Yes | 7.5 |
| wwder | No | 5 |
| nrynry | No | 2.66 |
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