Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 50% on 10 Jan 2023. Before it settled, across the 563 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2023 to 7 Aug 2024 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 20 Jan 2023 and the lowest 0.7% on 24 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 5% on 25 Jan 2023. $80.8K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 8, 10:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 563 points, 10 Jan 2023 – 7 Aug 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2023 | 50.0% |
| 7 Aug 2024 | 1.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Solar Beacon 5F04 | Yes | 6.08M |
| Zundred | Yes | 1.68K |
| GreatestStoryNeverTold | Yes | 1.5K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination
| Royal Harbor E218 | No | 711.48 |
| Bright Ledger EABB | Yes | 303.5 |
| Kira2611L | No | 247.37 |
| Bruised-Windchime | No | 122.43 |
| Anon2121 | Yes | 6.25 |
| Shrill-Layer | No | 5.33 |
| ugyhuijkl | Yes | 5.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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