Analytics
Resolved No on 10 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 42.6% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 10 May 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.9% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 21.1% on 2 May 2026. $609.46 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 11, 12:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 10 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 42.6% |
| 10 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| tryrobo | Yes | 96.7 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the Bundesliga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bundesliga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-conference-league
| Yes |
| 15 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Yes | 5 |
| Focused-Intestine | Yes | 1.8 |
| Keen Falcon D40C | No | 0.06 |
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