Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 10% on 16 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 78 daily closes on record from 16 Oct 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 10% on 16 Oct 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 31 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 6.9 points down, to 3.1% on 17 Oct 2023. $110.45K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 2:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 16 Oct 2023 – 1 Jan 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2023 | 10.0% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| void69 | Yes | 3.14K |
| betterbettor86 | Yes | 909.09 |
| RemoveBeforeFlight | Yes | 800 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, Hamas officially announces a surrender in its conflict with Israel. "Surrender" refers to a formal acknowledgment of defeat, entailing a cessation of all military and hostile activities against Israel, and this must be communicated through an official statement recognized by international authorities or bodies. The market will resolve to "No" if Hamas does not officially declare such a surrender by December 31, 2023. If the event of surrender occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-surrender-in-2023
| Yes |
| 31.25 |
| ambitious virus | Yes | 20 |
| ocho | Yes | 0.06 |
| Nasmutin | Yes | 0.02 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
