Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Nov 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.7%. Yes opened at 31% on 2 Nov 2023. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 2 Nov 2023 to 16 Nov 2023, the highest close was 31% on 2 Nov 2023 and the lowest 2.3% on 16 Nov 2023. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 12% on 6 Nov 2023. $19.99K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 17, 6:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 2 Nov 2023 – 16 Nov 2023, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2023 | 31.0% |
| 16 Nov 2023 | 2.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Pioneer 757C | Yes | 160 |
| Nasmutin | No | 0.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas releases 20 or more hostages in any 24-hour period between October 31 and November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a negotiated release of hostages will trigger a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom any potential released hostages belong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-release-20-hostages-in-a-single-day-by-nov-15
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