Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 24% on 2 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 2 Dec 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 24% on 2 Dec 2023 and the lowest 1.5% on 31 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 19% on 12 Dec 2023. $9K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 2 Dec 2023 – 1 Jan 2024, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2023 | 24.0% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aero-skylark | No | 3.75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas releases 12 or more hostages in any 24-hour period between December 1 and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a negotiated release of hostages will trigger a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom any potential released hostages belong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-release-12-hostages-in-a-single-day-by-eoy
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