Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 31 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 46.5% on 1 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 8.5% on 2 Nov 2025. $173.28K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 5:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 31 Oct 2025 – 1 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2025 | 25.5% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| funding | Yes | 7.83K |
| 16r0ob | Yes | 1.97K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 796 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 302 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 185 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 168.99 |
| BTCHODL | No | 106.95 |
| daystay | Yes | 100 |
| aajitan7 | Yes | 90.91 |
| Fixed-Guarantee | Yes | 84.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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