Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 67.5% on 19 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 45 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 67.5% on 19 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 5% on 13 Dec 2025. $150.98K traded over the market's life.
110 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2025 | 67.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 3gman | Yes | 9.33K |
| ridethelightning | Yes | 1.2K |
| theflash7402 | Yes | 1.17K |
| BronsonTheCant | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-half-life-3-be-announced-before-2026
| Incomparable-Sprinter | Yes | 943.5 |
| grawlix | Yes | 829.29 |
| s3ph1r0th | Yes | 661.61 |
| thepunk | Yes | 615.88 |
| kuranes90 | Yes | 611.86 |
| Starchy-Seashore | Yes | 566.91 |
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