Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 38%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 29 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 29 Dec 2023 to 16 Jan 2024, the highest close was 75.5% on 10 Jan 2024 and the lowest 36.5% on 2 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 69% on 3 Jan 2024. $4.34K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 17, 3:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 29 Dec 2023 – 16 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2023 | 50.5% |
| 16 Jan 2024 | 62.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Unconscious9485 | Yes | 19.43 |
| Chriscalucb | Yes | 0.59 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nikki Haley wins a greater number of votes than Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses take place, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-haley-beat-desantis-in-iowa
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
