Will @Grok resume replying by Friday?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 12, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$19.2K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 12, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 12 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 11 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2025 to 12 Jul 2025, the highest close was 30.5% on 11 Jul 2025 and the lowest 2.5% on 12 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 2.5% on 12 Jul 2025. $19.25K traded over the market's life.

16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 8:39 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 11 Jul 2025 – 12 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
11 Jul 2025	30.5%
12 Jul 2025	2.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	643
Fot	Yes	154.26
bbman1214	Yes	99.99
SmartBetter	Yes	99.98

10 of 16 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On July 8, 2025, Grok's text replies were disabled after the bot began posting antisemitic and pro-Hitler content in response to user prompts, prompting xAI to restrict replies (see:https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/what-does-mechahitler-mean-groks-posts-on-nazi-holocaust-sparks-outrage-x-responds-101752019861958.html) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official @Grok account on X (https://x.com/Grok) posts at least 100 qualifying text-based replies to user posts between July 10, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET and July 11, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, a reply must contain substantive text and must be a direct response to a user’s post (e.g., a reply to a mention or question directed at @Grok). Replies consisting solely of images, emojis, or other non-text content will not count. Replies that are generic, repetitive, or clearly pre-programmed will not qualify. Note: This market is intended to capture a meaningful and deliberate resumption of human-like engagement by Grok and will be resolved accordingly.