Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 1.6% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 7% on 20 Jan 2026 and the low 0.3% on 17 Jan 2026. $26.18K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 27 points · 30 Dec 2025 – 25 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 1.6% |
| 25 Jan 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.86K |
| sb911 | Yes | 4.39K |
| 7e034dF4F98002A6948Ba8c1a70 | Yes | 3.19K |
| products | Yes | 302.27 |
| cebi | Yes | 248.01 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 248 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 239.99 |
| happy12398 | Yes | 199.99 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 182.51 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 175.99 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "No release by January 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt20-released-on
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