Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 30 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2026 to 10 Feb 2026, the highest close was 4.5% on 30 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Feb 2026. $9.9K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 11, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 10 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 4.5% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.56K |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 456 |
| rated | Yes | 251.56 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 221 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "Released before February 1" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "No release by February 14" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt20-released-on-469
| uoaf | Yes | 200 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 165 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 153 |
| T200 | Yes | 103.63 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 92.99 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 80 |
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