Analytics
“Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which company has best AI model end of September?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 30 Sep 2025. $424.26K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 54 daily price points from Aug 8, 2025 UTC to Sep 30, 2025 UTC (Yes between 66.5% and 99.5%); 88 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 96.2% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 443 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 54 points · 8 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | 71.0% |
| 30 Sep 2025 | 99.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 166.89K |
| Clever-Captor | No | 4.35K |
| Essential-Bend |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| No |
| 4.18K |
| cowcat | No | 3.15K |
| Masilive | No | 2.31K |
| ngmai25 | No | 2.18K |
| agi | No | 1.43K |
| Rumpelstiltskin | No | 1.17K |
| anxiousgoose | No | 1.11K |
| JoE | No | 756.69 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
