Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.7%. Yes opened at 0.1% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 30 Apr 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 3.1% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Apr 2026. $1.6K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 8:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 2.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.46K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 499.98 |
| 0x1235651 | Yes | 151.03 |
| Noxious-Real | Yes | 136.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-second-best-coding-ai-model-end-of-april
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 56.22 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 25 |
| Indigo Tide 215D | Yes | 23.89 |
| Marines3312 | Yes | 17.54 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 11.42 |
| Siziriv | Yes | 10 |
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