Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Feb 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.5%. Yes opened at 16% on 7 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 60 daily closes on record from 7 Dec 2023 to 4 Feb 2024, the highest close was 50% on 10 Jan 2024 and the lowest 3% on 19 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 5.5% on 11 Jan 2024. $3.94K traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of Feb 4, 1:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 7 Dec 2023 – 4 Feb 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Dec 2023 | 16.0% |
| 4 Feb 2024 | 4.5% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
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If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only models accessible to the public (e.g. developers or public sign-ups) will count for this market. If Google deploys a new model in 2023 that could reach the top of the leaderboard but is not yet ranked at year's end due to time required for evaluation, this market's resolution may be delayed until February 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If at this point the resolution source still does not list the new model's ELO, the underlying script(s) will be used to determine whether google's model tops the leaderboard. Note that the model must be released by the resolution date to be considered (if they release a new version of the model after the resolution date, it will not be considered for this market). This market will resolve based on the leaderboard on Elo (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable by the resolution date, the underlying script to calculate google's model ELO on Chatbot Arena will be used directly.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-google-have-the-best-llm-before-2024
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