Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 31, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$432.3K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 31, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 9 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 54 daily closes on record from 9 Nov 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 55.5% on 18 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 11% on 19 Nov 2025. $432.29K traded over the market's life.

221 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:31 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 54 points, 9 Nov 2025 – 31 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Nov 2025	13.5%
31 Dec 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	149.26K
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	4.6K
lilwoogies	Yes	4K

10 of 221 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.