Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in April 2025?

Resolved

No, settled May 9, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$228.0K

Resolved

Settled

May 9, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 May 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 0.7% on 2 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2025 to 9 May 2025, the highest close was 2.3% on 7 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Apr 2025. $228.04K traded over the market's life.

5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 10, 4:20 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 2 Apr 2025 – 9 May 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Apr 2025	0.7%
9 May 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	86.11K
laurent2b	Yes	1K
realbad	Yes	594.11
ufGlVUAqxW	Yes	0.01

5 of 5 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of a named bracket for April 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for April 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2025 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".