Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 44% on 15 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 44% on 15 Aug 2026 and the low 0.1% on 9 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 14% on 23 Aug 2026. $1.53K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 27 points · 15 Aug 2026 – 10 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 44.0% |
| 10 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.55K |
| climateprofessor | Yes | 200 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 134.31 |
| PPMT | Yes | 20 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 15 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 12.59 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 5.69 |
| mildwindow27 | Yes | 5.66 |
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