Analytics
Resolved No on 9 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 11% on 2 Apr 2025. Before it settled, the high was 18.5% on 3 Apr 2025 and the low 0.1% on 9 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 18.5% on 3 Apr 2025. $92.67K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 10, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 38 points · 2 Apr 2025 – 9 May 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2025 | 11.0% |
| 9 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 86.11K |
| sandyisback | Yes | 1.11K |
| Trinity321 | Yes | 100.01 |
| endofeverything | Yes | 10 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of a named bracket for April 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for April 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2025 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/april-2025-temperature-increase-c4
| JDULIA | No | 0.02 |
| COjqqJUTth | Yes | 0.01 |
| SuARas | No | 0.01 |
| split | No | 0.01 |
| Karekken | No | 0.01 |
| aidentika | No | 0.01 |
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