Analytics
“Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Longest GitHub critical incident in August?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 1 Sep 2026. $1.98K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 12 daily price points from Aug 21, 2026 UTC to Sep 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 6.5%); 11 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 99.7% of the loaded shares; 60 recent public fills from 20 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 12 points · 21 Aug 2026 – 1 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 6.5% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 591.62 |
| ACara | Yes | 551.11 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/longest-github-critical-incident-in-august
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 125 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 100 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 22.7 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 16 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 13.7 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
