
Resolved No on 21 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 22.5%. Yes opened at 58% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 21 Mar 2026, the highest close was 80.5% on 20 Mar 2026 and the lowest 58% on 10 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 80% on 18 Mar 2026.
91 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 21 Mar 2026, chart shows 50%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 58.0% |
| 21 Mar 2026 | 77.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 36.16K |
| 50based | Yes | 2.05K |
| cilla7775 | Yes | 1.52K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 1.31K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 First Stand Tournament, currently scheduled for March 16th - March 22nd, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games. However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/First_Stand_Tournament/2026) may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/first-stand-2026-winner
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 907.01 |
| greninja | Yes | 700 |
| wheewhoo | Yes | 500 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 499.99 |
| juanalan | Yes | 442.72 |
| thelastscene | Yes | 434 |
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