Analytics
Resolved No on 8 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 8 May 2026, the highest close was 37.5% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 1.4% on 2 May 2026. $2.76K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 9, 5:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 1 May 2026 – 8 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 37.5% |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.19K |
| Regal-Bachelor | Yes | 1.92K |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 299.97 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 125.88 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-may-8-style-control-off
| TENETENET | Yes | 99.99 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 49.99 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| wwder | Yes | 4.99 |
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