Will four or more people dissent the January Fed decision?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 28, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$6.4K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 28, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 28 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 28 Jan 2026, the highest close was 20.5% on 18 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 28 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 7.5% on 27 Dec 2025. $6.39K traded over the market's life.

34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 30, 12:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 28 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Dec 2025	16.5%
28 Jan 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.29K
shine	Yes	409.38
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	373.93

10 of 34 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27-28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.