Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 45% on 27 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 27 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 45% on 27 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 9.5% on 2 Dec 2025. $76.49K traded over the market's life.
85 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 27 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2025 | 45.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GUADANHAO | Yes | 2K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 1K |
| RXu107 | Yes | 751.79 |
| Wallrider | Yes | 634.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Fogo (https://x.com/fogo/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Fogo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-fogo-launch-a-token-by
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| sashafi12 | Yes | 328.28 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 253 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 236 |
| leo3423 | Yes | 230.77 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 225 |
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