Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 91.6%. Yes opened at 39.5% on 2 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 133 daily closes on record from 2 Nov 2025 to 23 Mar 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 4 Nov 2025 and the lowest 3.9% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 6.5% on 5 Nov 2025.
260 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 6:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 133 points, 2 Nov 2025 – 23 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2025 | 39.5% |
| 23 Mar 2026 | 8.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 653.8K |
| DickTurbin | Yes | 133.97K |
| 93rijfeowfjo22o | Yes | 61.61K |
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”. If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-ncaa-tournament-winner
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 33K |
| Harmful-Wood | Yes | 19.93K |
| fmf2026 | Yes | 11.05K |
| Drizzl3r | Yes | 10.1K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 6.5K |
| SchillerSt | Yes | 4.58K |
| yes-man | Yes | 4.3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
