Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 20%. Yes opened at 50% on 26 Apr 2023. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 26 Apr 2023 to 1 May 2023 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 80% on 1 May 2023 and the lowest 16% on 28 Apr 2023. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 16% on 28 Apr 2023. $24.96K traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 11:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 26 Apr 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2023 | 50.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if First Republic Bank fails between April 25, 2023 and April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC, government entities, and a consensus of credible reporting on FDIC receivership/FDIC-determined failure of the bank will suffice.
Resolution source: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-first-republic-bank-fail-by-april-30
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