
Resolved No on 21 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 18%. Yes opened at 65.5% on 20 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 20 May 2026 to 21 May 2026, the highest close was 82% on 21 May 2026 and the lowest 65.5% on 20 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 82% on 21 May 2026. $11.45K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 22, 6:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 20 May 2026 – 21 May 2026, chart shows 60%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | 65.5% |
| 21 May 2026 | 82.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| cheapotrado | Yes | 40 |
| Okaayyyy | Yes | 40 |
| SniperZack | No | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor. This market will resolve to "Yes" if between market creation and May 21, 2026, 10:00 PM ET, Figure's F.03 robots run without failure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Failure is defined as a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred. If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-figures-f03-robots-run-without-failure-through-may-21-10-pm-et
| Westmoreland | No | 39.99 |
| rolly1polly | Yes | 30 |
| SheSaidHESaid | No | 29.31 |
| Clumsy-Instruction | Yes | 25.02 |
| 2024isHERE | Yes | 20 |
| RidenWithBiden | Yes | 20 |
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