Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

geopoliticsResolved

Yes, settled Aug 4, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$443.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 4, 2026 UTC

Topic roomStrait of Hormuz Iran–Israel

PricesPrice history from Polymarket's order book, daily closes, latest Aug 4, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Date	Close	Mid
Aug 4, 12:00 AM UTC	8.3%	8.3%
Aug 3, 12:00 AM UTC	2.5%	2.5%
Aug 2, 12:00 AM UTC	3.7%	3.7%
Aug 1, 12:00 AM UTC	5.9%	5.9%
Jul 31, 12:00 AM UTC	3.5%	3.5%
Jul 30, 12:00 AM UTC	3.9%	3.9%
Jul 28, 12:00 AM UTC	60.5%	60.5%
Jul 27, 12:00 AM UTC	58.5%	58.5%
Jul 26, 12:00 AM UTC	41.0%	41.0%
Jul 25, 12:00 AM UTC	31.0%	31.0%
Jul 24, 12:00 AM UTC	43.0%	43.0%
Jul 23, 12:00 AM UTC	41.5%	41.5%
Jul 22, 12:00 AM UTC	24.0%	24.0%
Jul 21, 12:00 AM UTC	62.0%	62.0%
Jul 20, 12:00 AM UTC	68.5%	68.5%
Jul 19, 12:00 AM UTC	29.5%	29.5%
Jul 18, 12:00 AM UTC	49.5%	49.5%

Topic room

Read this market in context

Research behind the numbers

Analytics

Date

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Aug 4, 12:00 AM UTC

8.3%

Aug 3, 12:00 AM UTC

2.5%

Aug 2, 12:00 AM UTC

3.7%

Aug 1, 12:00 AM UTC

5.9%

Jul 31, 12:00 AM UTC

3.5%

Jul 30, 12:00 AM UTC

3.9%

Jul 28, 12:00 AM UTC

60.5%

Jul 27, 12:00 AM UTC

58.5%

Jul 26, 12:00 AM UTC

41.0%

Jul 25, 12:00 AM UTC

31.0%

Jul 24, 12:00 AM UTC

43.0%

Jul 23, 12:00 AM UTC

41.5%

Jul 22, 12:00 AM UTC

24.0%

Jul 21, 12:00 AM UTC

62.0%

Jul 20, 12:00 AM UTC

68.5%

Jul 19, 12:00 AM UTC

29.5%

Jul 18, 12:00 AM UTC

49.5%