Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 1.7% on 31 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 213 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2024 to 31 Jul 2025, the highest close was 9.4% on 23 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jul 2025. $604.88K traded over the market's life.
47 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 8:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 213 points, 31 Dec 2024 – 31 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2024 | 1.7% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 35.43K |
| kewlintentionz | Yes | 7.51K |
| gandalf | Yes | 4.65K |
This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by between $750,000,000,000 (inclusive) and $1,000,000,000,000 (exclusive) between the Q4 2024 report and the Q2 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q2 2025 value. The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q2 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/federal-spending-elon-and-doge-cut-in-first-6-months
| Anibal | Yes | 1.87K |
| bert1 | Yes | 1K |
| Planetka | Yes | 1K |
| kravecjoni | Yes | 1K |
| bertos | Yes | 1K |
| mikepeper | Yes | 1K |
| carlodenesik | Yes | 572.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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