Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 51% on 3 Feb 2026 and the low 0.2% on 11 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 30% on 1 Feb 2026.
62 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 12, 4:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 39 points · 31 Jan 2026 – 11 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 48.5% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 18.76K |
| Any-Mariachi | Yes | 1K |
| Useful-Neuron | Yes | 1K |
| Distorted-Someone | Yes | 1K |
| pixelmeme | Yes | 419.41 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 269.06 |
| itsjustcheddar | Yes | 250 |
| Portly-Poor | Yes | 250 |
| twdh666 | Yes | 190.31 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 117 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record. Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-february-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
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